* Newcastle 2H2012 price forecast down $13 to $107/mt
* But 2013 forecast remains unchanged at $110 a tonne
* India to overtake China as top thermal coal importer
By Henning Gloystein
LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) – Bank of America Merrill Lynch
(BoAML) has lowered its 2012 thermal coal price forecast as an
oversupply in global markets is not expected to improve in the
near future, the bank said on Wednesday.
But with coal production costs rising in key markets such as
the United States and China, the bank said that it was keeping
its 2013 price outlook unchanged.
“The oversupply in the global coal markets will not improve
quickly … (and) in the absence of any big supply disruptions,
we see some downside risk to thermal coal prices in the next
months,” BoAML said in a research note.
“Thus, we are reducing our forecasts for Australian
Newcastle coal prices in 2H12 to $107 per tonne, from $120
prior, acknowledging better supply and weaker demand
conditions.”
Physical coal trading has been thin during the past months
as thermal coal markets are suffering from significant
oversupply as a result of healthy Colombian, U.S., South African
and Russian exports, while demand has been weak.
Continued…
