* Bankruptcies, project stoppages hit industry globally
* Further price slide possible as U.S. exports soar
* Costs exceed selling price as some currencies rally
By Jacqueline Cowhig
LONDON, July 24 (Reuters) – Global coal output is set to
shrink over the next year or two as miners grapple with a
combination of low prices driven by cheaper alternatives, weak
demand, and cost and currency headwinds.
Output has already begun to fall, but so far only by a
couple of millions of tonnes – a tiny fraction of the global
annual seaborne coal trade of 750 million. Analysts and industry
executives say cuts could soon reach dozens of millions of
tonnes to bring supply in line with weaker demand in China and
Europe.
The United States is already cutting due to low prices and
competition with cheap shale gas, while high-cost Russian and
Australian miners are also trimming production, and even
lower-cost rivals could follow suit due to high labour costs and
strong local currencies.
It could take a couple of years for the market to find a
balance, prolonging a period of painfully low profits for
higher-cost miners while helping out utilities, steel firms and
cement makers with low input prices.
“The current oversupply predicates production cutbacks and
the delay or cancellation of expansion plans,” Bank of America
Merrill Lynch said this month. “Although we expect the surplus
to shrink in 2013, it will not disappear,” it added.
Continued…
