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EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks retreat from 6-1/2 mth high after Bernanke

1 March 2012 By admin

* Emerging stocks retreat from 6-1/2 mth high
    * Rand, zloty near multi-month highs
    * Fitch comments on Hungary market access

    By Carolyn Cohn	
    LONDON, March 1 (Reuters) - Emerging stocks retreated
on Thursday from the previous session's 6-1/2 month on
expectations that fund flows into emerging markets could slow
after the Federal Reserve dampened hopes for further monetary
stimulus.	
    Comments by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke late on
Wednesday stopped short of promising further bond purchases to
stimulate the U.S. economy, while European banks' take-up of 530
billion euros of cheap loans offered at the European Central
Bank's long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) on Wednesday was
largely discounted by markets.	
    Previous rounds of quantitative easing by the Fed and the
ECB have driven money into higher-yielding emerging markets.	
    "Emerging markets have stabilised around their (current)
levels and there are only a few currencies that are going to
appreciate further, because the LTRO has already passed and QE3
is becoming more of a question mark now," said Thu Lan Nguyen,
FX analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.	
    "A lot of the positive aspects of the LTRO were already
priced into the market beforehand so we don't think this
momentum is going to accelerate as much as last time."	
    The MSCI emerging equities index fell 0.8 percent,
retreating from the previous day's August 2011 highs, and the
Thomson Reuters emerging Europe index dipped 0.4
percent. 	
    Emerging equities have rallied 17 percent this year,
supported by the ECB's offer of cheap loans and a second
bail-out for indebted euro zone sovereign Greece.	
    Purchasing managers' surveys released on Thursday presented
a mixed picture across emerging markets with manufacturing
activity rising in China, Hungary and the Czech Republic but
stagnating in Poland. 	
    However, fourth-quarter GDP data from Poland beat forecasts
and the zloty edged up towards the previous day's
six-month highs.	
    "The Polish zloty stands out because it has already
surprised positively from the growth perspective in the last
couple of weeks and the fiscal side as well has improved
significantly," Nguyen said.	
    Russian stocks and the rouble fell from
recent highs as oil stabilised below recent peaks and data
showed Russian manufacturing growth moderated in February.	
    The Hungarian forint edged up within recent ranges
but investors continued to keep an eye on developments in
Hungary's stalled talks with international lenders.	
    Ratings agency Fitch said on Wednesday that Hungary's
ability to obtain market financing on sustainable terms depended
on implementing fiscal consolidation programmes and restoring
policy credibility. 	
    Hungary's central bank said on Thursday that deteriorating
funding was weakening banks' capacity to lend. 	
    "The danger is that with banks being forced to make hard
decisions about where they deploy capital, they don't need an
excuse to more aggressively deleverage in economies like Hungary
where credit/policy risk and the growth outlook is weak," said
Tim Ash, head of CEEMEA research at RBS, in a client note.	
    Elsewhere, the rand rose half a percent towards the
previous day's five-month highs, as South Africa's PMI jumped to
a two-year high of 57.9 in February.	
    Emerging sovereign debt spreads tightened by 2 basis
points to 332 bps over U.S. Treasuries.	
	
 (Additional reporting by Philip Baillie; Editing by Susan
Fenton)

© Thomson Reuters 2012 All rights reserved





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Filed Under: South Africa Tagged With: news, reuters, south africa

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About admin

The one with a "My Complex" - incurable but fun. Grumpy, Cynical, Wise and Idiotic. I can also be found HERE.

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