In a speech to Merck in Germany on 18 October, F W de Klerk shared his views on Africa’s strategic future:
Sub-Saharan Africa constitutes one of the largest areas of under-developed real estate in the world. There are about the same number of people in its 24 million square kilometers than there are in the 3.3 million square kilometers of India. The continent is endowed with enormous mineral resources in a commodity hungry world. The Chinese – and other nations – have been rushing into the continent to tie up long-term contracts for Africa’s iron, cobalt, coal, vanadium and oil.
Perhaps, more importantly, only a fraction of Africa’s agricultural potential is, at present, being fully utilized. The Food and Agricultural Organisation estimates that the land area for rain-fed crops could be increased from 150 to 700% per region – with a potential for the whole continent of 300 million hectares. Africa’s agricultural potential is attracting enormous foreign interest. The British newspaper, the Observer, estimates that up to 50 million hectares of African farmland has been acquired by foreign investors or is in the process of being negotiated. This area is more than double the size of the United Kingdom.
All this is also changing international perceptions of Africa’s strategic importance.
For most of the period after World War II, Africa was of interest to the great powers primarily to the extent that its newly independent nations were viewed as areas of contestation between the United States and the Soviet Union. European countries took it almost for granted that they would be able to retain special relationships with Africa because of their former colonial ties.
With the ending of the Cold War Africa subsided into the global strategic background. African nations were no longer able to play one super power against the other in their efforts to promote their national interests. President Thabo Mbeki was shocked in 2000 when leading members of the European Commission told him that “the EU did not have any strategic perspective relating to Africa, as it did with other areas of the world, such as East and Central Europe, the Middle East and the United States.”
China, in particular, is showing intense interest in Africa. Although its trade with Africa makes up only 4% of the total, it has doubled during the past decade and now exceeds $ 100 billion. According to “The Telegraph” as many as 750 000 Chinese workers are now involved in development projects in the continent. Africans often complain that such workers do not integrate with the local population and take jobs that might otherwise go to locals.
Relations with China were a major issue in the recent election in Zambia – which was won by President Sata – partly on an anti-Chinese platform.
Although European and American investments in Africa are still significantly larger than those of China, there is clearly no room for complacency. Europe and the United States will continue to dismiss Africa at their peril
The continent is, for the following reasons, rapidly emerging from the periphery of global strategic interest:
- Access to Africa’s mineral and agricultural resources is becoming increasingly essential for Europe, North America and Asia.
- As a result, the continent is once again becoming an area of contestation as emerging economic powers led by China scramble for a share of its enormous mineral and agricultural resources.
- Africa is also playing a central role in the expansion of Islam. Half of the countries of Africa – some 27 nations – are members of the Organisation of The Islamic Conference. They also comprise half of the 54 Islamic states. It is estimated that 45% of the continent’s population are Moslems, compared with 40% who are Christians. Competition between Moslems and Christians is playing a significant role in conflicts in a number of countries – including Sudan, Nigeria and the Ivory Coast.
African Moslems are, on the whole, moderate and coexist peacefully with their Christian neighbours. However, Kenya and Tanzania were among the first targets of Al Qaeda terrorism and the collapse of state authority in Somalia is creating opportunities for Al Qaeda and other extremists.
In a world that will be increasingly hungry for natural resources and for food increasing attention will inevitably be focused on Africa. It is not by any means sure that such attention will always be benign or be concerned with the best interests of Africa or its people.
This presents the continent with special challenges:
- It must do more to establish genuine democracies in the 39 sub-Saharan countries that are still only partially free or not free at all;
- It must continue the good work it has done to resolve the continent’s remaining conflicts;
- It must continue to catch up the rest of the world in terms of education and human development;
- It must improve standards of governance and eliminate pervasive corruption:
- It must increase the competitiveness, diversity and openness of its economies so that there will no longer be any need for dependence on foreign aid.
I believe that Africa is accepting these challenges. But, whatever happens, one truth remains. Global strategic attention will be increasingly focussed on the continent – because of its enormous mineral resources; because of its untapped agricultural potential in an increasingly hungry world; and because of the potential of its people. Last year, during the FIFA Soccer World Cup, Africa gave the world a glimpse of its potential. To the blare of Vuvuzelas – and with the waving of its multicoloured flags – it was announcing that it was about to take its rightful place on the global stage.
F W de Klerk
The above is a a summary. The full text is posted on www.fwdeklerk.org
