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REUTERS
South African diplomat and doctor, Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, newly elected chairwoman of the Africa Union Commission
Did sheer luck – and a determined effort to avoid more embarrassment – play a decisive role in the election of Home Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma as the chairwoman of the Africa Union Commission?
The mysterious absence of two key leaders and the suspension of two key states from the AU may have tipped the delicate balance in her favour on Sunday.
The SA government itself and most observers have credited the victory to unprecedented diplomatic lobbying led by International Relations and Co-operation Minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane.
SA and Southern African Development Community (SADC) ministers criss-crossed the continent drumming up support.
This played an important role in breaking the deadlock in the election contest with the incumbent, Gabon’s Jean Ping, in January.
But Jakkie Cilliers, head of the Institute for Security Studies, believes there was also a large element of luck.
He noted that Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan and Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, both of whom were strong allies of Ping, were not at the AU summit in Addis Ababa where the vote took place.
Meles was believed to be gravely ill in a European hospital and Jonathan had to stay at home to deal with domestic crises.
Cilliers also noted that Mali, Equatorial Guinea and Madagascar had been suspended from the AU because of coups.
He believed Mali and Equatorial Guinea would have voted for Ping, and their absence might have given Dlamini Zuma the narrow edge she had over Ping in the first round of voting – 27 to 24. This was not the two thirds she needed to secure the post.
But after that Cilliers believes the determination of leaders prompted them to throw their weight behind the candidate who was in the lead to resolve the embarrassing impasse after January’s inconclusive election.
Dlamini Zuma increased her lead to 29-22 and then 33 to 18 and then 37 in the last round after Ping had to withdraw.
Yesterday political parties across the spectrum hailed her election.
President Jacob Zuma, her former husband, said he had been humbled by the confidence that Africa had shown in the “southern African” candidate.
Zuma said her appointment would build on the work done by her predecessors, including Ping, and would ensure a “more efficient and effective” commission, particularly in the implementation of “decisions pertaining to unity, peace, stability, development and the upliftment of women and children”.
Messages of support for one of the country’s longest-serving and effective cabinet ministers began pouring in.
DA MP Ian Davidson, the party’s spokesman on international relations, said the “time was ripe” for a representative of the SADC to hold the office.
The past three chairmen have been from Francophone African countries Ivory Coast, Mali and Gabon.
“We believe she has the appropriate skills and competence to transform the AU into an efficient and effective body as well as the diplomatic acumen to address the many crucial issues facing the African continent,” Davidson said.
Dlamini Zuma has been credited with a dramatic improvement in the running of the Home Affairs Department, which achieved its first unqualified audit in 16 years last year.
African Christian Democratic Party president Kenneth Meshoe congratulated Dlamini Zuma as the “first woman and also the first person from SADC” to take up the post.
“Because she is a woman and a mother we believe that she will lead the focus and put an end to the current abuse of women and children by militants in the DRC and surrounding areas,” he said.
The ANC said it was “thrilled”. “Her victory has punctuated the need to reposition and refocus the AU to ensure that it responds to global challenges confronting the continent and to work towards greater unity of the continent,” said spokesman Jackson Mthembu.
“The ANC believes that comrade Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma has the potential and the capacity to take the AU to new heights owing to her accumulated experience in the liberation movement.”
She had served with distinction in every position she had held “owing to determination and visionary drive”.
The United Democratic Movement (UDM) also congratulated Dlamini Zuma, saying she was a “strong leader and good administrator” who would add value to the commission.
However, UDM president Bantu Holomisa said it would be a pity to lose a person of Dlamini Zuma’s calibre in the cabinet “at a time when South Africa faces a leadership crisis in many government portfolios”.
Presidential spokesman Mac Maharaj said SA would “make the necessary adjustment” to allow Dlamini Zuma to take up her new role as soon as possible.