Independent Newspaper Limited
Statistician-General Pali Lehohla, left, has a quiet word with Planning Minister Trevor Manuel during the announcement of the Census 2011 results at the Presidential Guest House in Pretoria yesterday. Picture: Thobile Mathonsi
Suren Naidoo and Kamini Padayachee
ThAT KwaZulu-Natal no longer commanded the largest population in South Africa meant its percentage share of the national budget would be reduced while those of Gauteng and the Western Cape would increase, economists warned yesterday.
Commenting on Census 2011 figures, Pietermaritzburg economist and manager in the KZN Treasury, Clive Coetzee said population size was one of the main factors in the treasury’s calculations of the “equitable share” between provinces.
“The consequence of KZN no longer having the largest population in the country, whether it is due to migration or a slower growing population, will be a smaller percentage share of national budget funds,” he said.
“Provincial governments largely depend on these funds, and this will mean KZN will get a smaller percentage share of the fiscal pie.”
While Gauteng was the smallest province, it now boasted the largest population, with 23.7 percent or 12.3 million of the country’s 51 million people.
KZN now has 10.3 million people or 19.8 percent or the population, down from 21.1 percent in 1996.
Coetzee said KZN had historically received the largest share of the national budget. While KZN was still likely to get the largest share, its percentage share would decline.
Mike Schussler, chief economist at Economists.co.za, said KZN should be concerned about the risk of getting a smaller percentage share of the national budget because size of population accounted for about half of the equitable share formula. Other factors included the size of provinces and social and infrastructure needs.
“I am not so sure about Census 2011’s figures on KZN’s population growth [showing growth of 7.1 percent since 1996]. Despite migration from KZN, the province also attracts people looking for work as the second-largest economic hub in the country after Gauteng,” he said.
Schussler said KZN’s population had grown by only 0.1 percent since 2007, which was questionable. He believed StatsSA might have undercounted the population in Census 2011 by two or three million people.
“I for one would have expected a bigger population growth in KZN,” he said.
Andrew Layman, CEO of the Durban Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said while he was wary about the risk of KZN getting a smaller percentage share of the budget, he doubted this would be the case. “One would only have to question if KZN was getting its fair share of the equitable share of the budget when the IFP controlled this province,” he said.
KZN’s unemployment rate is higher than the national average, but StatsSA believes this is owing to the large number of people employed in the informal sector.
The KZN unemployment rate was 33 percent, while the national unemployment rate stood at 29.8 percent. But StatsSA said its Quarterly Labour Force Survey showed an unemployment rate in KZN of 19.3 percent. The survey was conducted between October and December 2011, around the time the census took place.
StatsSA officials stressed that the survey figures were a more accurate reflection. The big differences between the unemployment rate recorded in the survey and Census 2011 were due to the large number of people employed in the informal sector.
Interestingly, Census 2011 showed that the average household income had more than doubled in a decade. Annual household income in KZN had jumped from R38 0905 in 2001 to R83 053 in 2011. But this figure includes income derived from social welfare grants and business activities such as property rentals.
Layman questioned the results. He said the inclusion of informal sector employment “skewed” the picture.
“Unemployment statistics are often misleading… Is it verified that there are more people in KZN in the informal sector than Gauteng?” he questioned.
“For our province, what is meaningful is that unemployment exceeds the national average. This is a concern. The figures also reflect the greater opportunity of employment in urban centres, where the population is generally better educated. It is clear from many of the figures that rural communities are still disadvantaged relative to their urban counterparts.”
The figures showed that in KZN more developed urban municipalities such as eThekwini and uMgungundlovu (greater Pietermaritzburg) had lower unemployment rates, at 30.2 percent and 30.4 percent respectively. The largely rural uMkhanyakude and Zululand district municipalities had the highest unemployment rates, at 42.8 percent and 41.1 percent respectively.
Melanie Veness, the CEO of the Pietermaritzburg Chamber of Business, said unemployment levels, particularly in KZN, were unacceptably high.
“When one considers how many people are deriving an income from the informal sector of the economy, one can see how important it is that more be done to support small and medium enterprise development. While it is gratifying to note that uMgungundlovu has one of the highest labour absorption rates, it is extremely alarming to know that we have over 100 000 unemployed people in our district,” she said.
According to census statistics, the unemployment rate in the “black African” population was the highest at 35.6 percent.
By comparison, unemployment in the coloured, Indian and white communities was at 22.3 percent, 11.7 percent and 5.9 percent respectively.
