LONDON Jan 26 (Reuters) – Platinum and palladium
prices are expected to struggle in 2012, with analysts
drastically scaling back expectations for both metals as the
euro zone debt crisis threatens global economic growth, a
Reuters poll shows.
For 2013, however, the gradual resolution of the European
crisis, together with a resurgence in global growth and
constraints to supply is likely to boost prices again in 2013.
The Reuters survey shows the median forecast for platinum at
an average $1,610 an ounce this year, down from the median
$1,900 an ounce forecast in July 2011 and below the median
trading price of $1,765.00 of 2011.
The survey of 29 analysts included views ranging from
$1,829.00 to a low of $1,360.00. For 2013, analysts expected an
average platinum price of $1,812.50 an ounce.
Platinum’s heavy dependence on the broader European economy
and demand for catalytic converters means consumption is likely
to be constrained this year by the debt crisis, although this
could be partially offset by robust Chinese demand for
jewellery, another key source of off-take.
Mine supply is expected to grow this year, but the potential
for disruptions in top producer South Africa from electricity
shortages could be supportive.
“End-user demand will be needed to help investors drive any
price rises, and a weak outlook for European automotive output
(and hence platinum use) is worrying,” David Jollie, an analyst
at Mitsui Precious Metals, said.
“We expect the global economic outlook to improve, aiding
industrial platinum demand, and jewellery demand seems to be
robust in China, suggesting that some move towards higher prices
is likely later in the year,” Jollie said.
“However, with relatively weak fundamentals, it seems
unlikely that platinum will trade at an average price in excess
of last year’s level,” he added. Jollie forecast an average
platinum price of $1,575.00 this year.
Continued…
