1)You are having breakdown problems at a rate of 12 every 20 working days. You want to know what the probability is of there being more than 2 breakdowns in any particular day. You also want me to calculate the probability that there will be more than 5 days in 240 working days with more than three breakdowns on each of the five days. 2) Forecasting: I have also developed a forecasting computer program for spreadsheets that checks, using a “significant values of the correlation coefficient” table that there is sufficient correlation for a forecast and also gives a confidence interval for the value that has been forecast. This method is standard statistics, but appears to be lacking in some spreadsheets. 3) Your machine breaks down randomly at an average rate of 3 times a year. What is the probability that it will not break down in the next 6 months? (The answer is 0.2231. There is only a small chance it will not break down in the next 6 months). 4) My spreadsheet gives me a correlation coefficient of 0.456. I have 34 entries in one column. Is there significant correlation so that I can make a good forecast? 5) On average your business gets 40 phone calls a week. You put an advert in the paper and receive 52 phone calls the next week. Is this due to chance (and not the advert)? Rough estimation: If your average is 40 per week the chances of getting more than 50 in a week (if nothing has changed) is 0.05263 (ie 5.263% probability). It is unlikely you will get more than 50 if circumstances have not changed.
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