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LONDON Dec 13 (Reuters) – The forecast for coal to
2016 is marked by extreme uncertainty over the global economic
outlook and the impact of shifts in China’s domestic market, the
International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.
Coal demand worldwide will keep growing in the medium term,
despite calls in many countries for reducing reliance on
high-carbon fuels, the IEA said in its Coal Medium-Term Market
Report 2011 released on Tuesday.
Prices are seen rising steadily to 2016 on strong Asian
demand growth and prone to spikes due to short-term supply
problems.
“For all the talk about removing carbon from the energy
system, the IEA projects average coal demand to grow by 600,000
tonnes a day over the next five years,” IEA Executive Director
Maria van der Hoeven said during the launch of the report.
China will remain a major price driver in the medium term as
both a huge producer and consumer of coal.
China’s share of global production is almost four times that
of Saudi Arabia’s share of oil output, while the Chinese
domestic market is more than three times the size of annual coal
trade worldwide, the IEA said.
“What happens in China over the medium term may impact the
prices for electricity that consumers everywhere will have to
pay,” van der Hoeven said.
“The development of mines and infrastructure in China will
shape the global coal market,” the IEA’s head of gas and coal
research said.
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