* Reserve likely to keep interest rates steady
* Rand initially firms after stronger-than-expected data
(Adds details, reaction background)
By Xola Potelwa
PRETORIA, Feb 28 (Reuters) – South Africa’s economic
growth accelerated more than expected in the fourth quarter of
2011, driven by rising consumer demand caused by lower lending
rates, although growth remains weaker than the years running-up
to a 2009 recession.
Although surprisingly healthy, analysts said the data still
backed the case for rates to remain steady at the Reserve Bank’s
next policy meeting in March. The central bank slashed rates by
650 percent in a loosening cycle that ended in November 2010.
Growth quickened to 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of
2011 on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis, compared
with an upwardly revised 1.7 percent rise in the previous three
months, Statistics South Africa said on Tuesday.
On an unadjusted year-on-year basis, economic growth was at
2.9 percent in the fourth quarter from a revised 3.0 percent in
the third quarter. Preliminary estimates put GDP growth at 3.1
percent in 2011 from 2.9 percent in 2010.
A Reuters poll of 15 economists last week forecast
quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter,
on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis, while unadjusted
year-on-year expansion was seen at 2.6 percent.
“What those numbers are telling us is that the business
cycle uptick in the South African economy continues to unfold
and data has the potential to continue surprising in its
strength throughout Q1 and into Q2 2012,” said Jana le Roux, an
economist at ETM.
Continued…
