{"id":106757,"date":"2017-12-20T02:47:46","date_gmt":"2017-12-20T00:47:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/why-kenyas-push-for-nuclear-power-rests-on-false-or-fanciful-premises-the-conversation\/"},"modified":"2017-12-20T02:47:46","modified_gmt":"2017-12-20T00:47:46","slug":"why-kenyas-push-for-nuclear-power-rests-on-false-or-fanciful-premises-the-conversation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/why-kenyas-push-for-nuclear-power-rests-on-false-or-fanciful-premises-the-conversation\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Kenya\u2019s push for nuclear power rests on false or fanciful premises | The Conversation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Why Kenya\u2019s push for nuclear power rests on false or fanciful premises<\/a>: <\/p>\n

High voltage electrical pylons on the outskirts of Kenya's capital Nairobi. <\/span> Reuters\/Thomas Mukoya <\/span><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Kenya wants to go nuclear. Since 2012, Nairobi has been talking the talk and walking the walk. It has engaged the International Atomic Energy Agency and signed multilateral letters of intent in pursuit of nuclear power. <\/p>\n

To date, Kenya reportedly has memoranda of understanding with Russia, China, South Korea and Slovakia which involve the building of four nuclear power plants with a total output of 4,000 MW. France is apparently also eyeing the potentially lucrative deals which would nearly double Kenya\u2019s current electricity capacity. <\/p>\n

Kenya\u2019s Nuclear Electricity Board secured the global atomic energy agency\u2019s approval in 2016. It hopes to have the first plant online anywhere from 2022 to 2027, leading a new African push for nuclear power. The only country currently generating nuclear is South Africa.<\/p>\n

Other African countries have signed agreements with foreign firms. These include Nigeria\u2019s plans to build plants with Rosatom, the Russian firm. South Africa is also pursuing a deal for new nuclear power plants with the company as is Egypt. <\/p>\n

In January, the international nuclear agency concluded that Ghana had made \u201cconsiderable progress in the development of its nuclear power infrastructure.\u201d Uganda is also reportedly pursuing nuclear energy.<\/p>\n

The cost of the Kenya plant is estimated at Sh500 billion. This is costly and, given the current energy consumption patterns in Kenya, would be a massive waste of money.<\/p>\n

Kenya\u2019s industrial and consumer demand, economic growth, relative poverty as well as the current grid and distribution network simply do not support this magnitude of power generation at such exorbitant costs. <\/p>\n

Myths about Kenya\u2019s power situation<\/h2>\n

According to the popular narrative, Kenya suffers from the twin evils of electricity that is overly expensive and in short supply. Yet there is strong evidence that Kenya\u2019s power is relatively cheap and that successive governments have exaggerated both it\u2019s economic growth trajectory and its need for a massive increase in power generation. <\/p>\n

For example, Kenya has an installed capacity of just over 2,400MW, against a peak demand of just over 1,600MW. This is 800MW above peak hours demand.<\/p>\n

While economies are required to have surplus power capacity, excess capacity can lead to higher power bills as consumers are often charged for idle power plants.<\/p>\n

Thus the government, while promising ever cheaper power to consumers may actually be undercutting this promise in its pursuit of nuclear power plants and other costly projects that fail to reflect both industrial and private consumer demand.<\/p>\n

Note of caution<\/h2>\n

A recent study by a German engineering consultancy further confirmed how exaggerated government figures about demand have been. It noted that Kenya\u2019s maximum power demand would <\/p>\n

\n

grow 72% to 2,259MW by 2020 from the current 1,620MW, when projects such as the standard gauge railway start operating fully. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Government estimates, on the other hand, project peak demand will jump threefold to 4,755 megawatts in the three-year period. This is twice as much as the consultant\u2019s estimates. <\/p>\n

On top of this, Kenya\u2019s problem isn\u2019t that it needs more energy. Rather it needs to address distribution issues. <\/p>\n

Any project involving the generation of more power needs to pay equal attention to Kenya\u2019s grid and distribution system which currently can\u2019t handle additional power. This includes corresponding efforts at regular, systematic maintenance work. Without these, any extra power generated from renewable and other energy sources will remain costly and wasted.<\/p>\n

Yet another note of caution is in order. Demand from Kenya\u2019s domestic consumers remains low even though a total of 5.8 million customers now have connections to power \u2013 a five-fold increase in the past seven years.<\/p>\n

Why is this the case?<\/p>\n

Neither a lack of connectivity nor an unreliable supply is to blame for the low consumption of electricity by the vast majority of Kenyan consumers. Nor is it because of reportedly relatively high electricity tariffs. <\/p>\n

Rather, it is simply because the majority of Kenyans still have low income levels. Many Kenyans simply cannot afford the luxury of modern appliances for cooking, heating or refrigerating. <\/p>\n

This simple fact has neither been figured into government prognostications nor donor-driven last-mile connectivity scenarios. <\/p>\n

Grappling with reality<\/h2>\n

Over two years ago, after Kenya signed an MOU with China to explore building a nuclear power plant, I argued that sober analysis was required prior to walking further down that path. The situation remains the same today. <\/p>\n

This is not a question of whether or not Kenya would be a responsible nuclear power producer. Indeed, all indications are that national nuclear electricity board (KNEB) and other relevant government agencies have acted scrupulously and responsibly. <\/p>\n

Nevertheless, both the board as well as the international nuclear agency, the IAEA, should honestly conclude \u2013 and then publicly announce \u2013 that Kenya does not have a need for nuclear power. <\/p>\n

Adding extremely expensive nuclear power to Kenya\u2019s energy mix along with power from other inadvisable projects such as the Lamu coal power plant is arguably inexcusable as well as profligate. Lamu is expected to produce 5,000MW of power within a period of three years. <\/p>\n

As such, Kenya needs to work overtime to set a power generation agenda that identifies real versus perceived needs. The country\u2019s electricity agenda must not be driven by estimated consumption figures that fail to correspond to the true energy needs. In the words of a former Kenyan energy official, <\/p>\n

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It does not take much effort to notice the gap between what is on paper and the economic reality.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\"The <\/p>\n

Brendon J. Cannon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Source:<\/strong> The Conversation \u2013 Articles (AFRICA)<\/a><\/small>
\n<\/p>\n

Read more on The Conversation<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Join the fun:<\/strong> Add Your event<\/a> | Submit a Press Release<\/a> | Add your listing<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Why Kenya\u2019s push for nuclear power rests on false or fanciful premises: High voltage electrical pylons on the outskirts of Kenya's capital Nairobi. Reuters\/Thomas Mukoya Kenya wants to go nuclear. Since 2012, Nairobi has been talking the talk and walking the walk. It has engaged the International Atomic Energy Agency and signed multilateral letters of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[4584],"tags":[4721,8890,28646,9595,7953,2368,25301,4599,20393],"class_list":{"0":"post-106757","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-africa-news-2","7":"tag-false","8":"tag-conversation","9":"tag-fanciful","10":"tag-kenyas","11":"tag-nuclear","12":"tag-power","13":"tag-premises","14":"tag-push","15":"tag-rests","16":"entry"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106757","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=106757"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106757\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=106757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=106757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=106757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}