{"id":11931,"date":"2012-06-28T12:01:21","date_gmt":"2012-06-28T10:01:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/06\/column-australian-coal-price-forecasts-look-optimistic-clyde-russell\/"},"modified":"2012-06-28T12:01:21","modified_gmt":"2012-06-28T10:01:21","slug":"column-australian-coal-price-forecasts-look-optimistic-clyde-russell","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/column-australian-coal-price-forecasts-look-optimistic-clyde-russell\/","title":{"rendered":"COLUMN-Australian coal price forecasts look optimistic: Clyde Russell"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\t\t<span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&#8211;Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views<br \/>\nexpressed are his own.&#8211;<span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>By Clyde Russell<\/p>\n<p><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>LAUNCESTON, Australia, June 28 (Reuters) &#8211; At first glance<br \/>\nthe Australian government&#8217;s forecast for an increase in both<br \/>\ncoal export volumes and value in the year starting July 1 seems<br \/>\na touch optimistic.<\/p>\n<p><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>If anything, current market signals point to a coal market<br \/>\nawash with excess supply, which has been driving down prices,<br \/>\nand most participants expect further declines, at least in the<br \/>\nshort term.<\/p>\n<p><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>The Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics said on<br \/>\nWednesday it expected Australia&#8217;s thermal coal exports to rise<br \/>\n12.6 percent to 179 million tons in the 2012-13 financial year,<br \/>\nwith the value gaining 6.9 percent to A$18.6 billion ($18.6<br \/>\nbillion).<\/p>\n<p><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Assuming the volume forecast is on the money, the value<br \/>\nforecast assumes a price of A$103.90 a ton, which is about the<br \/>\nsame in U.S. dollars, as the two currencies are at parity.<\/p>\n<p><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>The current price for spot cargoes from<br \/>\nNewcastle, Australia&#8217;s largest thermal coal export port, is<br \/>\n$84.45 a ton, which is 19 percent below the bureau&#8217;s average<br \/>\nprice for 2012-13.<\/p>\n<p><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Given that the start of the new financial year is less than<br \/>\na week away, is it realistic to expect that prices will climb by<br \/>\nas much as the bureau expects?<br \/>\n\u00a0 <span class=\"label\"><strong>Continued&#8230;<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8211;Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.&#8211; By Clyde Russell LAUNCESTON, Australia, June 28 (Reuters) &#8211; At first glance the Australian government&#8217;s forecast for an increase in both coal export volumes and value in the year starting July 1 seems a touch optimistic. If anything, current market signals point [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[830,2370,183],"class_list":{"0":"post-11931","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-south-africa","7":"tag-news","8":"tag-reuters","9":"tag-south-africa-2","10":"entry"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11931","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11931"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11931\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11931"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11931"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11931"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}