{"id":11937,"date":"2012-06-29T00:02:14","date_gmt":"2012-06-28T22:02:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/06\/wrapup-1-poll-world-stocks-outlook-tempered-by-euro-zone\/"},"modified":"2012-06-29T00:02:14","modified_gmt":"2012-06-28T22:02:14","slug":"wrapup-1-poll-world-stocks-outlook-tempered-by-euro-zone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wrapup-1-poll-world-stocks-outlook-tempered-by-euro-zone\/","title":{"rendered":"WRAPUP 1-POLL-World stocks outlook tempered by euro zone"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\t\t<!--[if IE]&gt; div#resizeableText { overflow-x:auto; overflow-y:hidden; } &lt;![endif]--><\/p>\n<p>\t\t<span><\/span><\/p>\n<pre>* Outlook for rising stocks hinges on euro zone\n    * Global economy worries prompt cut to forecasts\n    * Brazil to lead the way, Italy likely to lag\n\n    By Andy Bruce\n    LONDON, June 28 (Reuters) - Persistent fears about the euro\nzone's future and an increasingly subdued global economy will\nrestrain further advances for the world's major stock markets,\naccording to Reuters polls of analysts, who slashed their\nforecasts.\n    Equity strategists were badly wrong-footed by last year's\ndisastrous showing for global stocks. Analysts overestimated\ngains in all but one index, and underestimated gains in the Dow.\n    Following a dire 2011 that wiped trillions of dollars from\nglobal bourses, hopes were high among equity strategists - ever\noptimistic - that this year would bring a strong rebound.\n    That has failed to materialise. And even though analysts\nexpect all but one of the 20 stock indexes featured in the poll\nto end 2012 higher than their current levels, they scaled back\ntheir forecasts from the last survey in March.\n    A few indexes are expected to recoup the heavy losses\nsuffered last year by the end of this December.\n    But for many of the forecasts collected around the globe,\nthe case for rallying shares is paradoxically based on a belief\nthat the quagmire Europe finds itself in, and a deteriorating\nglobal economy, will trigger another flood of central bank cash.\n    \"The euro zone crisis continues to cast a shadow on global\nmarkets, but stocks are supported by interest rate tailwinds and\n... the Fed's willingness to undertake further easing measures,\"\nsaid John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential\nInternational Investment Advisers in Newark.\n    Central bank balance sheets have exploded in recent years\nand there is no sign of any halt to the river of cash being\npumped into banks. That has propped up stock markets, despite\nall the economic gloom.         \n    Indeed, only Italian shares are expected to end the year\nbelow their current levels. By contrast, strategists predict\nthat Brazil's Bovespa will have the best performance of\nany major world index, rising 24 percent by year-end.\n    That prediction comes despite a sharp economic slowdown.\n    But respondents also warned there is plenty that could snuff\nout an expected rally, with the euro zone's sovereign debt\ncrisis chief among their concerns.\n    \"The euro crisis is a long and tough process that will not\ndissolve in the short term. It remains an uphill struggle,\" said\nMarkus Reinwand, analyst at Helaba in Frankfurt.\n    European Union leaders are meeting on Thursday to talk over\nhow they can solve the debt crisis, which has spread from Greece\nto much bigger economies like Spain and Italy. \n    But with discord between European politicians running high,\nhopes for progress are slim, and the crisis was cited as a\ndepressant for shares by analysts from Shanghai to New York,\nwhere stocks are still expected to gain modestly.\n    For most of the indexes, the current 12-month forward\nprice-to-earnings ratio is lower than their 10-year average,\nsuggesting stocks are relatively cheap. That is one key reason\nwhy many analysts foresee gains despite big economic worries.\n    As in previous polls, emerging markets are expected to lead\nthe way, although some developed market indexes look set for\nhearty returns over the next 12 months.\n    The U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average, Canada's SP TSX, the\npan-European DJ Euro Stoxx and Germany's DAX 30 are among those\nthat could rise by double digits over the next 12 months.\n    Japan's Nikkei average will gain 20 percent this year, its\nbiggest rise since 2005, with investors pinning their hopes on\nmore policies to tackle the euro zone debt crisis and strong\nearnings to entice foreign investors back to Japanese stocks.\n    \n    RALLY REALISM\n    Emerging market indexes as a group are expected to gain an\naverage 13.5 percent for this year, compared with 14.6 percent\nin March's poll.\n    While Brazilian shares are expected to lead the way, India's\nBSE Sensex could rise by a fifth over the next 12\nmonths, and likewise for the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite\nIndex. Again, the predictions come despite substantial\neconomic slowdowns in these economies.\n    But much depends on the euro zone.\n    \"At some point the authorities in Europe are going to have\nto act to avoid a collapse,\" said Luciano Rostagno, chief\nstrategist at WestLB bank in Brazil. \n    The SP 500 , which features many of the\nworld's biggest corporations, is expected to end 2012 about 5\npercent higher from Wednesday's closing level of 1,331.85,\nrepresenting a rally of 11 percent for the year.\n    Most European indexes are expected to perform similarly,\nalthough the timing of any rally from here is uncertain.\n    \"There's a lot of emotional pessimism in the market and it's\nvery difficult to identify exactly which week, month or quarter\nthat is going to change,\" said Darren Winder, head of strategy\nat Oriel Securities, on Britain's FTSE 100.\n    \"But the stock market does not reflect underlying\nprofitability - it hugely underestimates it.\"\n    Italian equities, hit hard by the euro zone debt crisis and\npoor economic prospects, lagged behind every other major stock\nindex in the poll. \n    Already 12 percent in the red for this year, they are\nexpected to decline another percentage point from now until the\nend of December.\n    And that forecast does not capture the tumultuous times the\nindex may endure in the interim.\n    \"We are tightly tied to the future of the euro,\" said\nGiorgio Mascherone, investment head at Deutsche Bank Italy.\n\n (Additional reporting from reporters in London, Paris, New\nYork, Tokyo, Shanghai, Sydney, Hong Kong, Johannesburg,\nFrankfurt, Milan, Sao Paulo, Toronto, Seoul, Moscow and Mumbai;\nPolling by Reuters Polls Bangalore; Analysis by Yati Himatsingka\nand Rahul Karunakar; Editing by Catherine Evans)<\/pre>\n<p><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"copyright\">\n<p>         \t\t\u00a9 Thomson Reuters 2012 All rights reserved<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>* Outlook for rising stocks hinges on euro zone * Global economy worries prompt cut to forecasts * Brazil to lead the way, Italy likely to lag By Andy Bruce LONDON, June 28 (Reuters) &#8211; Persistent fears about the euro zone&#8217;s future and an increasingly subdued global economy will restrain further advances for the world&#8217;s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[830,2370,183],"class_list":{"0":"post-11937","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-south-africa","7":"tag-news","8":"tag-reuters","9":"tag-south-africa-2","10":"entry"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11937","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11937"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11937\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11937"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11937"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11937"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}