{"id":11941,"date":"2012-06-29T00:02:19","date_gmt":"2012-06-28T22:02:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/06\/text-fitchmiddle-east-africa-outlook-dominated-by-oil-and-politics\/"},"modified":"2012-06-29T00:02:19","modified_gmt":"2012-06-28T22:02:19","slug":"text-fitchmiddle-east-africa-outlook-dominated-by-oil-and-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/text-fitchmiddle-east-africa-outlook-dominated-by-oil-and-politics\/","title":{"rendered":"TEXT-Fitch:Middle East, Africa outlook dominated by oil and politics"},"content":{"rendered":"

\t\t<\/span><\/p>\n

(The following statement was released by the rating agency)<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

June 28 – Fitch Ratings says in its latest bi-annual global Sovereign Review and Outlook
\nthat the economic and rating outlook in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) remains dominated by
\nthe differential impact of recent high oil prices on oil exporters and oil importers, the
\nsoundness of policy regimes and reform ambitions, and political risks.<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

Oil Producers Still Benefitting from High Prices<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

Although the oil price has fallen from its peak in March, Fitch’s latest forecast is for the
\nBrent oil price to average USD107\/bl this year, well above estimated budget breakeven prices for
\nthe major GCC producers. Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear ambitions subsided in
\nQ212 but are likely to re-surface in H2 with renewed talks between Iran and the P5+1 making
\nlittle progress.<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia’s budget breakeven price has eased to just over USD70\/bl as production has
\nrisen substantially to make up for sanctions constrained production in Iran and in an attempt to
\nachieve what it regards as a fair price of USD100\/bl. Its balance sheet is benefiting strongly
\nfrom higher oil production and prices. Strong fiscal and current account surpluses – a feature
\nalso shared with Kuwait and Abu Dhabi – will allow Saudi Arabia to continue with its ambitious
\ninfrastructure programme. More active labour market policies are also beginning to have an
\nimpact on employment of Saudis in the workforce.<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

A number of African oil producers have attracted positive rating actions this year due to
\nthe combination of improved public finances and stronger policy regimes. Gabon and Angola were
\nplaced on Positive Outlook in April and May, respectively. In both cases, oil revenues are
\nimproving and being deployed more effectively, especially on critical infrastructure which will
\nbenefit medium term growth and employment prospects.<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

In Nigeria, the scrapping of the expensive gasoline subsidy in January, although partly
\nrolled back after popular protests, nevertheless marks important progress and has contributed to
\nthis year’s steady increase in international reserves. A tighter budget has also played a part,
\nbased on a conservative oil price of USD72\/bl and only a modest spending rise. However, all
\nthese countries still have limited room for manoeuvre in the event of sustained low oil prices
\nand their response to further price weakness will provide important evidence of whether lessons
\nhave been learned from 2009, when weak oil prices brought severe macroeconomic stress.<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\u00a0 Continued…<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) June 28 – Fitch Ratings says in its latest bi-annual global Sovereign Review and Outlook that the economic and rating outlook in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) remains dominated by the differential impact of recent high oil prices on oil exporters and oil importers, the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[830,2370,183],"class_list":{"0":"post-11941","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-south-africa","7":"tag-news","8":"tag-reuters","9":"tag-south-africa-2","10":"entry"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11941","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11941"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11941\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11941"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11941"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11941"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}