{"id":159704,"date":"2020-04-09T14:47:40","date_gmt":"2020-04-09T12:47:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/climate-change-could-cause-abrupt-biodiversity-losses-this-century-the-conversation\/"},"modified":"2020-04-09T14:47:40","modified_gmt":"2020-04-09T12:47:40","slug":"climate-change-could-cause-abrupt-biodiversity-losses-this-century-the-conversation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/climate-change-could-cause-abrupt-biodiversity-losses-this-century-the-conversation\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate change could cause abrupt biodiversity losses this century | The Conversation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Climate change could cause abrupt biodiversity losses this century<\/a>: <\/p>\n

<\/span> GettyImages<\/span><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems are already evident. Poleward shifts in the geographic distributions of species, catastrophic forest fires and mass bleaching of coral reefs all bear the fingerprints of climate change.<\/p>\n

But what will the world\u2019s biodiversity look like in the future? <\/p>\n

Projections indicate that unless emissions are rapidly reduced the climate crisis will get substantially worse. Up to 50% of species are forecast to lose most of their suitable climate conditions by 2100 under the highest greenhouse gas emissions scenario. <\/p>\n

But we still lack answers to some basic questions. When will species be exposed to potentially dangerous climate conditions? Will this occur in the next decade or only later in the century? Will the exposure of species accumulate gradually, one species at a time? Or should we expect abrupt jumps as the climate limits of multiple species are exceeded?<\/p>\n

Our understanding of when and how abruptly climate driven disruptions of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. We took a different route. We used annual projections of temperature and precipitation from 1850 to 2100 across more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of species exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. <\/p>\n

Based on these projections, we estimate that climate change could cause sudden biodiversity losses. These could occur much sooner this century than had been expected. This new analysis indicates that a high percentage of species in local ecosystems could be exposed to potentially dangerous climate conditions simultaneously. <\/p>\n

Rather than slowly sliding down a climate change slope, many ecosystems face a cliff edge.<\/p>\n

Risk of abrupt biodiversity loss early this century<\/h2>\n

Abrupt biodiversity loss due to marine heatwaves that bleach coral reefs is already under way in tropical oceans. The risk of climate change causing sudden collapses of ocean ecosystems is projected to escalate further in the 2030s and 2040s. Under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario the risk of abrupt biodiversity loss is projected to spread onto land, affecting tropical forests and more temperate ecosystems by the 2050s. <\/p>\n