{"id":226748,"date":"2022-05-22T21:46:31","date_gmt":"2022-05-22T19:46:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/musevenis-first-son-muhoozi-clear-signals-of-a-succession-plan-in-uganda\/"},"modified":"2022-05-22T21:46:31","modified_gmt":"2022-05-22T19:46:31","slug":"musevenis-first-son-muhoozi-clear-signals-of-a-succession-plan-in-uganda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/musevenis-first-son-muhoozi-clear-signals-of-a-succession-plan-in-uganda\/","title":{"rendered":"Museveni’s first son Muhoozi: clear signals of a succession plan in Uganda"},"content":{"rendered":"
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On 8 March 2022, Ugandan politics was sent into a spin by 49 words tweeted by President Yoweri Museveni\u2019s only son, Lt Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba.<\/p>\n

The tweet announced Muhoozi\u2019s retirement from the Ugandan People\u2019s Defence Forces (UPDF), which he had formally served in since 1999. Since his most recent promotion in June 2021, he has served as the commander of the land forces. The position made him the third-highest ranking officer in the defence forces.<\/p>\n

Muhoozi\u2019s resignation would clear his legal path to formally enter electoral politics. Serving members of the armed forces are banned from political activity under Uganda\u2019s constitution. <\/p>\n

The tweet seemed to catch everyone by surprise, including senior security officials. They later put out a statement<\/a> saying Muhoozi had not resigned. <\/p>\n

While Muhoozi clarified hours later that his retirement would not come for eight years, the post fits a recent pattern that has fuelled growing public perception that he is declaring his political intentions. <\/p>\n

The most stark example of this occurred weeks after the tweet. This was in the form of a nationwide series of public events to mark Muhoozi\u2019s 48th birthday<\/a>. <\/p>\n

These included sports tournaments, public rallies, a party for supporters, and a state dinner. Public roads were shut for the events, and state-owned broadcasters aired some of them live. Rwandan President Paul Kagame attended the State Dinner. <\/p>\n

At one of the birthday rallies held in the south-western town of Masaka on April 20,<\/a> supporters wore T-shirts with slogans such as \u2018Muhoozi K is our next president\u2019 and \u2018MK Project. Team Chairman. Secure Your Tomorrow.\u2019 <\/p>\n

In subsequent tweets<\/a> in early May, Muhoozi dropped any remaining reticence. <\/p>\n

He later added:<\/p>\n

At the state dinner, Museveni, who has always denied<\/a> grooming his son to succeed him, made comments <\/a> implying that his Muhoozi would soon be in charge. <\/p>\n

Whether or not Muhoozi makes it to State House \u2013 and a great deal still stands in the way of this happening \u2013 it is undoubtedly clear that the possibility of replacing Museveni with his son has dramatically shifted from rumour to reality in recent months.<\/p>\n

Heir apparent, apparently<\/h2>\n

Muhoozi was 11 years old when his father\u2019s National Resistance Army took Uganda\u2019s capital Kampala in 1986. In 1999, he formally joined the Ugandan defence forces while a student at the city\u2019s Makerere University. <\/p>\n

He has been subsequently trained at elite military academies in the UK and US, and continually promoted<\/a> ahead of more experienced peers.<\/p>\n

After Muhoozi\u2019s most recent promotion to commander of the land forces, he has featured in a number of Uganda\u2019s military deployments. These include those in the Democratic Republic of Congo,<\/a> Somalia<\/a> where Uganda is part of the African Union peacekeeping force, and the Karamoja region<\/a> in Uganda\u2019s northeast. <\/p>\n

Muhoozi\u2019s fast-tracked rise into a position of power within the military has long produced accusations<\/a> that he is being groomed by Museveni for succession. Yet, despite this \u2018heir apparent\u2019 accusation, Muhoozi\u2019s public profile had previously remained relatively small. He is still perceived as something of \u2018an unknown quantity\u2019 among broad swathes of the Ugandan public. <\/p>\n

He has rarely given interviews to traditional media outlets. For most of his adult life, the average citizen would probably not have known very much about him. <\/p>\n

The reasons for this relatively subdued profile were related to the inner workings of the National Resistance Movement<\/a> (NRM) regime that Museveni has led since 1986. <\/p>\n

Museveni\u2019s play book<\/h2>\n

At every point in his now 36 years at the helm, the president has maintained a posture of impending retirement. Museveni consistently suggests that the next election will be his last and that he dreams of the simple life<\/a> of cattle keeping. <\/p>\n

Being constantly about to step down in this way has allowed Museveni to play off the factions of the NRM against each other. He has dangled the possibility of succession before them. <\/p>\n

In Uganda, this ploy has been referred to as the succession \u2018queue\u2019<\/a> within the ruling party.<\/p>\n

In recent years, however, this act has worn thin. <\/p>\n

This is mainly because Museveni has successfully marginalised several powerful National Resistance Movement figures who had developed partially autonomous political bases. They include former Vice President Gilbert Bukenya, former Parliamentary Speaker Rebecca Kadaga, former Inspector General of Police Kale Kayihura, and most spectacularly former Prime Minister and Party Secretary General Amama Mbabazi. <\/p>\n

The decline of these figures \u2013 all rumoured to be in the metaphorical \u2018queue\u2019 for the top job \u2013 has made even the most naive party elites incredulous to the idea that Museveni will ever hand over power to one of them. <\/p>\n

Enter Muhoozi<\/h2>\n

This change has coincided with the political emergence of Muhoozi in recent years. <\/p>\n

His public profile has been growing both domestically and internationally. As a presidential advisor on special operations, a post he was appointed to in 2017 alongside his military roles, Muhoozi has held summits<\/a> with the leaders of Egypt, Kenya and Somalia. <\/p>\n

He has also held regional engagements with Rwanda\u2019s Kagame, whom he refers to as his \u2018uncle\u2019. Following a meeting between the two men in Kigali in January, Rwanda finally agreed to reopen its border<\/a> with Uganda. It had been closed for three years following Kigali\u2019s accusations that Uganda had been harbouring members of the opposition Rwandan National Congress. <\/p>\n

The perception that Muhoozi\u2019s intervention has been key in mending the frosty relationship between the two countries was reinforced by a further meeting, again in Kigali, in March<\/a>. After this, Muhoozi and Kagame announced a broader bi-lateral agreement to stop supporting dissidents in each other\u2019s countries. <\/p>\n

Shortly afterwards, Rwandan opposition blogger, and former journalist, Robert Mukombozi<\/a>, who had been living in Kampala, was pictured boarding a plane at Uganda\u2019s Entebbe International Airport. <\/p>\n

Muhoozi confirmed on Twitter that Mukombozi had been expelled, describing him as an \u201cenemy of Rwanda and Uganda\u201d. It was not clear where Mukombozi was going, although it was possibly to Australia<\/a>, with which he has ties. <\/p>\n

No longer a quiet figure in the background, the First Son has recently become vocal on social media about many aspects of Ugandan politics and its foreign affairs. <\/p>\n

In many cases, his stances appear to have contradicted<\/a> some of the official positions of the Ugandan government. These include his tweets in support of Tigrayan rebels in Ethiopia\u2019s civil war, and Russian President Vladimir Putin in his invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Alarming to many is not just the positions Muhoozi has taken, but the bombastic and egotistic tone<\/a> of his discourse. <\/p>\n

He frequently states that he will destroy Uganda\u2019s enemies, and likens himself to military and revolutionary figures throughout history. These are discursive traits that have long been components of his father\u2019s rhetoric.<\/p>\n

Yet, across the country and online, multiple \u2018Team MK\u2019 or \u2018MK 2026\u2019 groups<\/a> are popping up to support his future presidential run.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s coming?<\/h2>\n

The most likely explanation for Muhoozi\u2019s recent emergence is that his once low profile is being raised to position him to succeed his father. If this is indeed the regime\u2019s wish, it would be unwise to bet against it. <\/p>\n

However, the pathway for Muhoozi to reach State House is far from guaranteed. The Ugandan public would expect him to win an election to legitimise his leadership, and in so doing he would potentially face 2021 candidate Bobi Wine<\/a> in fierce competition for the nation\u2019s increasingly young electorate.<\/p>\n

Source: The Conversation<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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