{"id":247783,"date":"2023-01-19T21:12:33","date_gmt":"2023-01-19T19:12:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/climate-change-is-threatening-madagascars-famous-forests-our-study-shows-how-serious-it-is\/"},"modified":"2023-01-19T21:12:33","modified_gmt":"2023-01-19T19:12:33","slug":"climate-change-is-threatening-madagascars-famous-forests-our-study-shows-how-serious-it-is","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/climate-change-is-threatening-madagascars-famous-forests-our-study-shows-how-serious-it-is\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate change is threatening Madagascar’s famous forests \u2013 our study shows how serious it is"},"content":{"rendered":"

Global climate change doesn\u2019t only cause the melting of polar ice caps, rising sea levels and extreme weather events. It also has a direct effect<\/a> on many tropical habitats and the animals and plants that inhabit them. As fossil fuel emissions continue to drive climate change, large areas of land are forecast to become much hotter and drier by the end of this century.<\/p>\n

Many ecosystems, including tropical forests, wetlands, swamps and mangroves, will be unable to cope with these extreme climatic conditions. It is highly likely that the extent and condition of these ecosystems will decline. They will become more like deserts and savanna.<\/p>\n

The island nation of Madagascar is of particular concern when it comes to climate change. Of Madagascar\u2019s animal species, 85% cannot be found elsewhere on Earth. Of its plant species, 82% are unique to the island. Although a global biodiversity hotspot, Madagascar<\/a> has experienced the highest rates of deforestation anywhere in the world. Over 80% of its original forest cover has already been cleared by humans. <\/p>\n

This has resulted in large population declines in many species. For example, many species of lemurs (Madagascar\u2019s flagship group of animals) have undergone rapid population decline, and over 95% of lemur species are now classified as threatened on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Drier conditions brought about by climate change have already resulted in widespread bush fires<\/a> throughout Madagascar. Drought and famine are increasingly severe<\/a> for the people living in the far south and south-western regions of the island. <\/p>\n

Madagascar\u2019s future will likely depend profoundly on how swiftly and comprehensively humans deal with the current climate crisis.<\/p>\n

What we found<\/h2>\n

Our study<\/a> investigated how future climate change is likely to affect four of Madagascar\u2019s key forest habitat types. These four forest types<\/a> are the dry deciduous forests of the west, humid evergreen forests of the east, spiny bush forests of the arid south, and transitional forests of the north-west corner of the island. <\/p>\n

Using computer-based modelling, we simulated how each forest type would respond to climate change from the current period up to the year 2080. The model used the known distribution of each forest type, and current and future climatic data. <\/p>\n

We did this under two different conditions: a mitigation scenario, assuming human reliance on greenhouse gas reduces according to climate commitments already made; and an unmitigated scenario, assuming greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase at their current rate.<\/p>\n

Our results suggest that unmitigated climate change will result in declines of Madagascar\u2019s forests. The area of land covered by humid forest, the most extensive of the four forest types, is predicted to decrease by about 5.66%. Dry forest and spiny bush are also predicted to decline in response to unmitigated climate change. Transitional forest may actually increase<\/em> by as much as 5.24%, but this gain will almost certainly come at the expense of other forest types. <\/p>\n

We expected our model to show that mitigating climate change would result in net forest gain. Surprisingly, our results suggest entirely the opposite. Forest occurrence will decrease by up to 5.84%, even with efforts to mitigate climate change. This is because global temperatures are forecast to increase under both mitigated and unmitigated scenarios. <\/p>\n

These predicted declines are in addition to the huge losses of forest already caused by ongoing deforestation throughout the island. <\/p>\n

It looks as if the damage has already been done.<\/p>\n

Climate change, a major threat<\/h2>\n

The results of our research highlight that climate change is indeed a major threat to Madagascar\u2019s forests and likely other ecosystems worldwide. These findings are deeply concerning for the survival of Madagascar\u2019s animals and plants, many of which depend entirely on forest habitat.<\/p>\n

Not only will climate change decrease the size of existing forests, changes in temperature and rainfall will also affect the amount of fruit that trees produce.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n
\"A<\/div>\n

<\/a>

Madagascar lemurs and other animal and plant species may become extinct if the forests disappear.<\/span> Rijasolo\/AFP<\/a><\/span> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Many of Madagascar\u2019s animals, such as its lemurs, rely heavily on fruit for food. Changes in fruit availability will have serious impact on the health, reproductive success and population growth of these animals. Some animals may be able to adapt to changes in climate and habitat, but others are very sensitive to such changes. They are unlikely<\/a> to survive in a hot, arid environment<\/a>. <\/p>\n

\n

Read more: Climate change and wildlife: 3 studies that reveal the devastating toll on Africa’s animals<\/a> <\/strong> <\/em>\n<\/p>\n

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This will also have serious knock-on effects for human populations that depend on forests and animals for eco-tourism income. Approximately 75% of Madagascar\u2019s population<\/a> depends on the forest and subsistence farming for survival, and the tourism sector contributes over US$600 million towards the island\u2019s economy annually.<\/p>\n

To ensure that Madagascar\u2019s forests survive, immediate action is needed to end deforestation, protect the remaining patches of forest, replant and restore forests, and mitigate global carbon emissions. Otherwise these remarkable forests will eventually disappear, along with all the animals and plants that depend on them.<\/p>\n

Source: The Conversation<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Global climate change doesn\u2019t only cause the melting of polar ice caps, rising sea levels and extreme weather events. It also has a direct effect on many tropical habitats and the animals and plants that inhabit them. As fossil fuel emissions continue to drive climate change, large areas of land are forecast to become much […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":247784,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[4584],"tags":[3257],"class_list":{"0":"post-247783","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-africa-news-2","8":"tag-mypr","9":"entry"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/climate-change-is-threatening-madagascars-famous-forests-our-study-shows-how-serious-it-is-scaled.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/247783","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=247783"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/247783\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/247784"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=247783"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=247783"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=247783"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}