{"id":57480,"date":"2015-11-11T22:48:05","date_gmt":"2015-11-11T20:48:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/2015\/11\/el-nino-threatens-southern-africa-with-yet-another-drought-the-conversation\/"},"modified":"2015-11-11T22:48:05","modified_gmt":"2015-11-11T20:48:05","slug":"el-nino-threatens-southern-africa-with-yet-another-drought-the-conversation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/el-nino-threatens-southern-africa-with-yet-another-drought-the-conversation\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o threatens southern Africa with yet another drought | The Conversation"},"content":{"rendered":"
A farmer sitting on a water tank he uses to supply his livestock.<\/span> Reuters\/Siphiwe Sibeko<\/span><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Southern Africa is in for a bumpy, dry ride. There is a 50% chance of a drought occurring this summer that could have an impact on the whole region which still bears the effect of last year\u2019s drought. Any new drought will have a compounding effect.<\/p>\n

During the 2014\/2015 southern hemisphere summer southern Africa suffered one of the worst ever droughts. This severely affected the agricultural sector as well as the economies of the countries in the region. In addition, the drought seriously depleted water reserves.<\/p>\n

The current drought in the region is as a result of a powerful El Ni\u00f1o event. El Ni\u00f1o is a natural and periodic phenomenon that comes back every 3 to 5 years and can last for up to two years. It increases temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Ocean which in turn can cause drought conditions.<\/p>\n

During 2015 the Pacific became even warmer leading to one of the strongest El Ni\u00f1o events ever observed. Research shows that 8 of the 10 strongest droughts in southern Africa since 1900 occured during the mature phase of El Ni\u00f1o. It has also been noted that El Ni\u00f1o events have led to a severe drought half of the time they occurred.<\/p>\n

The effect of El Ni\u00f1o on droughts has been exacerbated over the past 50 years. This has been because continental and oceanic temperatures have risen globally but not uniformly during due to the increase in carbon dioxide.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o events leading to droughts in the region have been particularly marked since the late 1970s. Most have occurred between December and March. Recent studies show that El Ni\u00f1o has affected summer rainfall with increased dry spells, reductions in the flux of moisture from the Indian Ocean to the continent, and by shifting large scale rain bearing systems to the Indian Ocean.<\/p>\n

Successive droughts over the last century<\/h2>\n

Over the last century, southern Africa has suffered from dramatic year-on-year changes in climate leading to severe droughts and disturbance in the marine or terrestrial ecosystems. Such variability of climate affects the agricultural industry, water reserves, fisheries and as a result the broader economy. It also affects the flow of water in streams, vegetation and the fluxes of nutrients into the ocean.<\/p>\n

It has a particularly detrimental effect on:<\/p>\n