{"id":98524,"date":"2017-07-23T18:47:37","date_gmt":"2017-07-23T16:47:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/look-to-china-for-the-main-beneficiary-of-americas-likely-retreat-from-africa-the-conversation\/"},"modified":"2017-07-23T18:47:37","modified_gmt":"2017-07-23T16:47:37","slug":"look-to-china-for-the-main-beneficiary-of-americas-likely-retreat-from-africa-the-conversation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/look-to-china-for-the-main-beneficiary-of-americas-likely-retreat-from-africa-the-conversation\/","title":{"rendered":"Look to China for the main beneficiary of America’s likely retreat from Africa | The Conversation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Look to China for the main beneficiary of America’s likely retreat from Africa<\/a>: <\/p>\n

Presidents of Kenya, Guinea, US and Nigeria's Vice President at the G7 Summit. <\/span> Angelo Carconi\/EPA<\/span><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Anti-terrorism and transactional relationships are likely be the main features of US President Donald Trump\u2019s Africa policy. But if Trump\u2019s proposed cuts to the state department hold, the US will be less and less of a presence on the continent, according to Prof Gregory F Treverton, who directed the US National Intelligence Council in the Obama Administration.<\/p>\n

Treverton, who is currently Professor of Practice at the University of Southern California, is a world authority on security and intelligence. I put a number of questions to Treverton who visited South Africa recently to deliver the keynote address at a South African Council on International Relations conference on South Africa\u2019s relations with Africa.<\/p>\n

\n

Why is Donald Trump\u2019s foreign policy so incomprehensible?<\/strong><\/p>\n

I wish I knew! It\u2019s a continual struggle between, on the one hand, the true believers, the American firsters who are anti-trade and anti-engagement in what they see as an unfriendly world, and on the other more traditional conservative Republicans. <\/p>\n

The pattern has been that the more traditional conservative Republicans, like the Secretaries of State and Defence, tug policy in a more familiar direction, only to have the president blow the process up with a tweet condemning the Paris climate agreement or labelling Germany an unfair trader. The intensity of the struggle is reflected in the continuing haemorrhage of leaks, all from the very top of the administration.<\/p>\n

Didn\u2019t the post-Second World War liberal international order need a shake up?<\/strong> <\/p>\n

Yes, and perhaps in that sense we\u2019ll end up thanking Trump, if, and this is a big if, we get through the next years without a major crisis or too much broken crockery. Some of Trump\u2019s complaints, like (America\u2019s Western) allies bearing too little of the burden, have been true for a long time. And the reaction by Americans to the sense that they pay too much for the \u201cpublic goods\u201d of international economics and security has been going on for a long time. <\/p>\n

Polls routinely show that Americans think the country spends on foreign aid 20 or 30 times what it actually does. So, too, the questioning of what we all too easily call the \u201cliberal international order\u201d has been growing over time.<\/p>\n

You suggested that Russia under Vladimir Putin, is a declining power. Doesn\u2019t the evidence point in the other direction?<\/strong><\/p>\n

It surely is a declining power, though Putin has played a weak hand extraordinarily well. It is in demographic decline, and far from modernising the Russian economy, Putin has only deepened its dependence on hydrocarbons. My fear is that as the country declines, it will be all the more tempted to turn to what tools it retains \u2013 cyber attacks and nuclear sabre-rattling.<\/p>\n

How do you think Trump\u2019s Africa policy will turn out?<\/strong><\/p>\n

In testifying before Congress, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson probably was as clear as the administration could be given its disarray. Africa was in the \u201cturning to other countries\u201d category, and he began with the fight against terrorism. He did, though, mention the economic opportunities in Africa, mostly in the sense of business that might be done. I suspect those will continue to be the emphasis.<\/p>\n

So does this mean that anti-terrorism and transactional relationships will be the main features of Trump\u2019s Africa policy?<\/strong><\/p>\n

I think they will continue to be the main drivers, for better or worse, though not the only drivers. The country will have to respond to major humanitarian crises whether the administration wants to or not. And some of the legacy programmes of the last two administrations, like the African Growth and Opportunity Act, or the President\u2019s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief have had bipartisan support, so we\u2019ll see how they fare in the congressional budget process. <\/p>\n

And, if this is so, what are the long-term implications of this for US relations with the continent?<\/strong><\/p>\n

If Trump\u2019s proposed cuts to the State Department and USAID hold, the US will be less and less of a presence on the continent. The main beneficiary, diplomatically, will be China, followed by the Europeans and perhaps even Russia, though it doesn\u2019t have much to contribute except arms sales. <\/p>\n

If there is any silver lining, perhaps it will be that Africans, and particularly South Africans, will realise they have to take more initiative on their own. <\/p>\n

When it comes to the US itself, you raised the possibility that it might break up? Where you speaking in abstract terms, or is this a real possibility?<\/strong><\/p>\n

I meant it mostly as a metaphor and as a touchstone for thinking about the future. I don\u2019t think it\u2019s likely, but it does have to be considered. <\/p>\n

What is certain is that the next few years will be a kind if a guerrilla war, one mostly fought in the courts, between the US federal government and the \u201cblue\u201d (read Democratic Party-controlled) states, led by California, over climate change, immigration and other issues.<\/p>\n

What does the Trump presidency mean for these ideas?<\/strong><\/p>\n

So far it seems bound to increase the divide in America. Trump has talked and acted entirely to please his base. He has played on fear, fanning it by portraying the country in dire straits surrounded by a hostile world. So far that base \u2013 especially older and often poorer white Americans \u2013 seems to have been satisfied by word, words they see as validating them. <\/p>\n

But we\u2019ve known from the beginning that Trump can\u2019t deliver on his promises: those \u201cgood\u201d low-skilled jobs in manufacturing or mining (as he has portrayed them) aren\u2019t coming back. So we\u2019ll see, but I expect that realisation to only deepen the anger and disaffection.<\/p>\n

The co-hosts of the conference Treverton addressed were the Johannesburg Institute for Advanced Study (JIAS) and the Wits School of Public Management.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"The <\/p>\n

Peter Vale receives funding from the the University of Johannesburg, the Nanyang Technological University, Singapore and the National Research Foundation. <\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Source:<\/strong> The Conversation \u2013 Articles (AFRICA)<\/a><\/small>
\n<\/p>\n

Read more on The Conversation<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Join the fun:<\/strong> Add Your event<\/a> | Submit a Press Release<\/a> | Add your listing<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Look to China for the main beneficiary of America’s likely retreat from Africa: Presidents of Kenya, Guinea, US and Nigeria's Vice President at the G7 Summit. Angelo Carconi\/EPA Anti-terrorism and transactional relationships are likely be the main features of US President Donald Trump\u2019s Africa policy. But if Trump\u2019s proposed cuts to the state department hold, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[4584],"tags":[428,10596,24642,577,8890,3445,11120,2419,2838,14165],"class_list":{"0":"post-98524","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-africa-news-2","7":"tag-africa","8":"tag-americas","9":"tag-beneficiary","10":"tag-china","11":"tag-conversation","12":"tag-from","13":"tag-likely","14":"tag-look","15":"tag-main","16":"tag-retreat","17":"entry"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98524","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98524"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98524\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98524"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98524"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.myza.co.za\/press\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98524"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}